Investigators: Melissa Penny, Andrea Kipingu
In this project we will generate model-driven insights to accelerate and optimise how next-generation malaria vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are developed, evaluated, and deployed, across different age groups, use-cases, and transmission settings, with support from Coefficient Giving. We use our individual-based model of malaria dynamics, OpenMalaria, for the modelling, which involves integrating clinical data from a range of next-generation and existing malaria vaccine candidates, including multistage vaccines, and leading mAbs.
This project spans seven connected aims:
- Estimate the impact of existing and new malaria vaccines. Using models calibrated to Phase 2 and 3 trial data, we will estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of these single stage or multi-stage vaccines.
- Define what better vaccines need to do. Building on Aim 1, we will understand how efficacy, durability, and coverage of next-generation vaccines support improved burden reduction and elimination targets.
- Improve how vaccine trials are designed. We will use models to simulate clinical trial designs for multi-stage vaccines and help identify endpoints, settings, and conditions that allow a trial capture effects that are otherwise easy to miss, such as synergy between candidates, durability, and impact on severe disease.
- Weigh the trade-offs between vaccine characteristics. Vaccine developers face competing choices: efficacy versus durability, two doses versus three, one dosing schedule versus another. We will build a framework that simulates these alternatives under real-world constraints, to show which strategies deliver the most impact for the cost.
- Assess mAbs alongside vaccines. We will extend our modelling to leading mAb candidates, testing how they perform on their own, in combination with existing or vaccines, and alongside existing chemoprevention campaigns.
- Respond to stakeholder and clinical partner questions as they arise.
- Support collaboration with other modelling teams.
Funders: Coefficient Giving
Grant information: Malaria Vaccine Modelling commencing January 2026