A time-varying geospatial model of habitat suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus vectors and vertebrate hosts in Australia

In the austral summer of 2021-2022, Australia experienced an unprecedented Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak, with detections over 3000 km south of previous occurrences. Given the limited knowledge of JEV transmission ecology in Australia, we developed geospatial models of transmission risk to support the public health response. We created time-varying habitat suitability models for suspected mosquito vectors and ardeid hosts using month-scaled occurrence and covariate data from 2000-2023.

Citation:
Duncan DH, Harrison LE, Potter A, ……. Golding N, Shearer FM. A time-varying geospatial model of habitat suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus vectors and vertebrate hosts in Australia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2026;20(3):e0014127.

Keywords:
Epidemiology; animals; culex; physiology; virology; ecosystem; encephalitis; transmission; mosquito vectors; vertebrates

Abstract:
In the austral summer of 2021-2022, Australia experienced an unprecedented Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak, with detections over 3000 km south of previous occurrences. Given the limited knowledge of JEV transmission ecology in Australia, we developed geospatial models of transmission risk to support the public health response. We created time-varying habitat suitability models for suspected mosquito vectors and ardeid hosts using month-scaled occurrence and covariate data from 2000-2023.