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Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa

The implications of climate change for malaria eradication this century remain poorly resolved. Many studies focus on parasite and vector ecology in isolation, neglecting the interactions between climate, malaria control and the socioeconomic environment, including disruption from extreme weather. Here we integrate 25 years of African data on climate, malaria burden and control, socioeconomic factors, and extreme weather. 

Inferring temporal trends of multiple pathogens, variants, subtypes or serotypes from routine surveillance data

Estimating the temporal trends in infectious disease activity is crucial for monitoring disease spread and the impact of interventions. Surveillance indicators routinely collected to monitor these trends are often a composite of multiple pathogens. For example, "influenza-like illness"-routinely monitored as a proxy for influenza infections-is a symptom definition that could be caused by a wide range of pathogens, including multiple subtypes of influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV.

Estimating the potential malaria morbidity and mortality avertable by the US President's Malaria Initiative in 2025: a geospatial modelling analysis

Since its inception in 2005, the US President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a major role in the reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality observed across Africa. With the status of PMI funding and operations currently uncertain, we aimed to quantify the impact that a fully functioning PMI would have on malaria cases and deaths in Africa during 2025. 

Temporal trends in test-seeking behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic

Cases identified through mass testing represent only a fraction of infections, depending on the propensity of infected individuals to seek testing. Quantifying the variation in test-seeking behaviour through time or between population subgroups provides important information on testing uptake and supports epidemiological analyses of case data that may otherwise be biased.

Trends in malaria prevalence among school-age children in Mainland Tanzania, 2015-2023: A multilevel survey analysis

In high-transmission areas, school-aged children have higher malaria prevalence and contribute significantly to the transmission reservoir. Malaria infections can be asymptomatic or present with symptoms which may contribute to anaemia, severe illness and fatal malaria. This analysis provides trends of malaria prevalence and associated risk factors among school-aged children in mainland Tanzania. 

Healthy skin for children and young people with skin of colour starts with clinician knowledge and recognition

Skin conditions most frequently encountered in paediatric practice include infections, infestations, atopic dermatitis, and acne. Skin of colour refers to skin with increased melanin and darker pigmentation, and reflects global racial and ethnic diversity. 

A matter of timing: Biting by malaria-infected Anopheles mosquitoes and the use of interventions during the night in rural southeastern Tanzania

Knowing when and where infected mosquitoes bite is required for estimating accurate measures of malaria risk, assessing outdoor exposure, and designing intervention strategies. This study combines secondary analyses of a human behaviour survey and an entomological survey carried out in the same area to estimate human exposure to malaria-infected Anopheles mosquitoes throughout the night in rural villages in south-eastern Tanzania.

High-resolution spatio-temporal risk mapping for malaria in Namibia: a comprehensive analysis

Namibia, a low malaria transmission country targeting elimination, has made substantial progress in reducing malaria burden through improved case management, widespread indoor residual spraying and distribution of insecticidal nets. The country's diverse landscape includes regions with varying population densities and geographical niches, with the north of the country prone to periodic outbreaks.

How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A H3N2 has caused yearly epidemics in temperate regions. While infection confers immunity against antigenically similar strains, new antigenically distinct strains that evade existing immunity regularly emerge ('antigenic drift'). Immunity at the individual level is complex, depending on an individual's lifetime infection history.

The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species.