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Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings

Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios.

Tracking global intervention coverage

Adam Dan Saddler Weiss PhD PhD Senior Research Officer Honorary Research Fellow Daniel.Weiss@thekids.org.au Senior Research Officer Honorary