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Research

Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially.

Research

Malaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps of malaria prevalence, incidence, and mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease and to inform strategic malaria control efforts. We present the latest such maps, the first since 2019, which cover the years 2000–22. The maps are accompanied by administrative-level summaries and include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on malaria burden. 

Research

When models are used to inform decision-making, both their strengths and limitations must be considered. Using malaria as an example, we explain how and why models are limited and offer guidance for ensuring a model is well-suited for its intended purpose.

Research

Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence. 

Research

Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach.

Research

Vector mosquito biting intensity is an important measure to understand malaria transmission. Human landing catch (HLC) is an effective but labour-intensive, expensive, and potentially hazardous entomological surveillance tool. The Centres for Disease Control light trap (CDC-LT) and the human decoy trap (HDT) are exposure-free alternatives.

Research

In recent years there have been reports of viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa where malaria is endemic. VHF and malaria have overlapping clinical presentations making differential diagnosis a challenge.

Research

Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator.

Research

Malaria incidence (MI) has significantly declined in Nepal, and this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and drivers of MI at the ward level. Data for malaria cases were obtained from the National Surveillance System from 2013 to 2021. Data for covariates, including annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and distance to the nearest city, were obtained from publicly available sources. A Bayesian spatial model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of MI.

Research

HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria are the three most important infectious diseases in Ethiopia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the spatial codistribution of these diseases is critical for designing geographically targeted and integrated disease control programmes. This study investigated the spatial overlap and drivers of HIV, TB and malaria prevalence in Ethiopia.